Pending Home Sales Hit Record Low — What It Means for NW Indiana Buyers

Pending home sales just hit a record low — and every buyer and seller in Northwest Indiana needs to pay attention.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released the latest Pending Home Sales Index — and it dropped to 70.9, the lowest level ever recorded in the history of the index. Pending home sales fell 4.6% month-over-month and 0.4% year-over-year.

“Improving affordability conditions have yet to induce more buying activity,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

What the Pending Home Sales Chart Shows

The Pending Home Sales Index tracks signed contracts — not closings. It’s the most forward-looking indicator we have for where the housing market is actually headed.

Look at the trajectory:

• 2015-2019 (pre-pandemic normal): The index hovered around 105-110
• 2020-2021 (buying frenzy): It spiked to 130 as rates hit historic lows
• 2022-present: A cliff dive that never recovered

We are now 35% below pre-pandemic norms heading into what should be the peak spring buying season. That’s not a soft market — that’s a market where almost nobody is signing contracts.

Why This Matters for NW Indiana

Fewer signed contracts nationally means less competition locally. And that creates real opportunity for buyers who are willing to move while everyone else sits on the sidelines.

Here’s what I’m seeing on the ground in Porter, Lake, and LaPorte counties right now:

• More price reductions — Sellers who listed at 2022 fantasy prices are finally getting realistic
• Longer days on market — The 48-hour bidding wars are gone
• Motivated sellers — Foreclosure filings and lis pendens are ticking up across all three counties
• Rates stabilizing — Not dropping to 4%, but not spiking either. Enough to plan around.

Is This a Crash?

No. This is a market that’s finally finding its footing after three years of paralysis. Prices aren’t collapsing — they’re adjusting. Inventory isn’t flooding — it’s building gradually.

But the activity level is at rock bottom. And historically, that’s when the best deals happen.

Think about it: the people who bought in late 2023 — the last time this index hit these levels — are sitting on equity today. The buyers who move when the market looks ugly are the ones who win.

What Buyers Should Do Right Now

1. Get pre-approved. Rates are in the mid-6% range. Know your number.
2. Watch the price reductions. Properties that have been sitting 60+ days are where the negotiation leverage is.
3. Don’t wait for “the perfect time.” By the time pending sales rebound and headlines turn positive, the deals will be gone.
4. Work with someone who knows the local market. National data tells the story. Local expertise finds the opportunity.

What Sellers Should Know

If you’re thinking about selling, the window is narrowing. Inventory is building, and buyers have more options than they’ve had in years. Pricing right from day one is no longer optional — it’s the difference between selling in 30 days and chasing the market down for 6 months.

📉 Housing Demand Confirms the Trend

It’s not just pending home sales. The Reventure Housing Demand Index — which combines pending sales, mortgage applications, internet home searches, and buyer sentiment into a single metric — paints an even starker picture.

As of March 2026, the 1-month demand index sits at just 14 — compared to a “normal demand” baseline of 50. That’s 72% below normal and lower than even the 2008-2011 housing crash, which bottomed around 29-30.

The pandemic peak in December 2020 hit 76. We’ve fallen 82% from that peak. Two independent data sources — NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index and Reventure’s composite demand metric — are telling the same story: buyer competition is at historic lows.

For Northwest Indiana buyers, this is the data behind the opportunity. Less competition at open houses, more room to negotiate, and sellers who are increasingly willing to make concessions. This window won’t last forever — when mortgage rates eventually drop, demand will snap back fast (just like it did in 2012 and 2020).

Bottom Line

With pending home sales at historic lows, Spring 2026 is shaping up to be the best buying window since 2012. The data is clear. The question is whether you’re going to act on it or wait until everyone else does.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling in Northwest Indiana — or you own a property and want to know what it’s actually worth in this market — let’s talk. No pressure, just real numbers.

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Josh Pavich | Weichert, Realtors® – Shoreline
📞 (219) 508-8579  |  📧 josh_pavich@protonmail.com
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Data source: NAR, YCharts via Wolf Street